The Atlantic Ocean current might be near collapse

photo of ocean current around a rock outcrop


USA Today’s article focuses on a study published in the journal Nature Communications warning that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a significant system of ocean currents that transports warm water from the tropics to the North Atlantic, could collapse due to human-induced climate change. The collapse might occur by the middle of the century or even as early as 2025, according to the study. This event could result in drastic weather and climate changes, including potential ice age conditions in Europe, sea-level rise in cities like Boston and New York, intensified storms and hurricanes along the East Coast, and reduced precipitation in the central and western United States.

The AMOC plays a vital role in ocean water and air circulation, affecting weather patterns globally. The faster it moves, the more heat is distributed, influencing temperatures in Europe and North America. The study introduces new statistical tools and historical ocean temperature data spanning 150 years to estimate that the AMOC's collapse is 95% certain to occur between 2025 and 2095. This prediction contradicts the notion in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report that such an abrupt change in the AMOC is "unlikely" this century.

The study's authors link the potential collapse to the melting of Greenland's ice caused by greenhouse gas emissions and global warming. The influx of freshwater from melting ice can disrupt the normal sinking of saltwater, potentially weakening or shutting down the AMOC, leading to significant climate disruptions.

While experts not involved in the study hold mixed views on its conclusions, some emphasize the importance of multiple approaches yielding similar results. The research serves as a reminder of the urgency to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions.

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